The Urban Organism

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Introduction: At the root of the definition of life there exists theoretical flexibility not popularly acknowledged in the teaching of evolutionary theory. The idea that cities are living organisms may be a foreign thought, yet the growth patterns of cities are strikingly similar to patterns exhibited in conventionally living organisms. Useful biological implications emerge about the nature of human civilisation when one adopts the correct perspective of scale and relative time, observes human nature in its entirety (e.g. via satellite imagery) and puts aside the impossible notion that "human nature" is somehow unnatural. It is possible for human civilization to philosophically reconnect with its natural and evolutionary history. Herein may lie the answers to fundamental questions such as, who are we? why are we here?

This paper suggests a method for biologically studying cities. The first chapter is rooted in biological and evolutionary theory, followed by method description and application consisting of case analyses.

Chapter 1 - Life

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If you were asked to define life, how would you respond? Dictionary.com defines life as, “the condition that distinguishes organisms from inorganic objects and dead organisms, being manifested by growth through metabolism, reproduction, and the power of adaptation to environment through changes originating internally.”

As the origin of life is conceptualized in evolutionary theory, non-living matter begot living matter. Put another way, organisms exist in a family tree, sharing a common ancestor who had no ancestors of its own. The original organism is the most primitive organism that ever lived. Perhaps an amoeba, it was nearly unworthy of the term ancestor or organism and barely alive relative to what we perceive as living. However, from this species all organisms in our family tree originate.

What is ironic about the way the original organism is conceptualised is that it was apparently hocused-pocussed into existence. Life suddenly existed, absent of a biological history. There is a surprisingly Creationist suggestion at the origin of evolutionary theory.

Does the idea of an organism with no ancestors hinder your ability to imagine it? As someone who fully accepts evolutionary theory, it certainly does mine. Since I was a biology student at the University of California, Berkeley, I have pondered this theoretical life/no-life moment.

What’s living: For our purposes, let’s say that the fundamental part of anything is the atom. All matter is comprised of atoms. What is the difference between Carbon atoms in a rock, in the human body or in the original organism? The difference is the system in which the atom is a part and how it reacts to other atoms through time.

Popular thinking would suggest that a single atom is not a living organism. Yet all living organisms are collections of supposedly non-living particles. System is core to the meaning of life and I suggest that the theoretical original organism represents the point at which a pre-existing and evolving system becomes interested in the context of biology.

As such, the definition of life is exclusively applied to a tree of life in which humans and the so-called original organism reside; however, this tree does not comprise all dimensions of life. Furthermore, this tree does not represent the full spectrum of relevant biological subjects.

In truth, the definition of life is flexible. For instance, relative to the above mentioned definition could a city be a living organism? I pose that the answer is yes. When one adopts a systemic view of life, life becomes something more universal.

This paper is about observing and exploring life from a different perspective. The primary focus is on cities. I believe that biological science and evolutionary biology are great tools. I do not intend to undermine or subtract from their utility. On the contrary, I believe these tools are versatile and can be applied to a fundamental element of contemporary human existence.

2. SYSTEMS IN MOTION

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2A. Life = Systems in motion:

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A systemic definition of life connects the origin of life with the origin of the Universe because ultimately anything that exists is part of a system in motion. Therefore, every thing contains life. Such a definition is founded upon the original process that created life as we commonly know it; the Big Bang. Furthermore, this definition assumes the existence of matter. For where there is matter, there is gravity. Where there is gravity, there is motion. Where there is motion, there is imbalance, and where there is imbalance, there is time.

Matter = gravity = motion = imbalance = time

I expect that some will argue that the above definition (life = systems in motion) is too simplistic and general. However, I believe it is fitting that a term at the foundation of an entire field (biology) is broad. Furthermore, despite being short, this definition is comprised of a potent set of words. There exists inherent physical complexity to terms like “system” and “motion.”

According to the systemic definition of life, within all physical matter there exists life. Certainly, by this definition a lot of things defined as alive have little utility to contemporary biologists, but let us foster a more accurate perspective of what life actually is. Instead of the view that life was non-existent at one time and then existent at another, life is systems of motion that evolve through time.

In order to understand how a rock is alive in the same way a cat is, one must adopt the correct perspective of scale and relative time. Furthermore, see things for what they are. A friend once asked me, “So are you saying a car is alive?” I answered, “The personified car is not alive, but each and every part of the car is made up of atoms which are as “alive” as the atoms in your body. Given relative time, and from the correct perspective of scale, the life of that matter as a system in motion can be observed.”

This argument is important because scientific query is founded upon philosophy. A systemic view of life respects the laws of physics, chemistry, and biology. They are in turn combined into a working tool that is applicable beyond established biology. In other words, the methodologies used within these disciplines can be applied to systems not traditionally considered alive.

2B. Which life:

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By the systemic definition of life, one organism is alive in more than one way. For example, a tree is alive in its own right, but can also be part of a larger living organism, a forest. The same goes for microorganisms in our bodies and cells grouped in various arrangements to form tissues within organisms. A discussion of what is living depends on perspective. Let us apply the idea of systems within systems to human beings. Not only is the human body alive, but so too is the system to which most human bodies belong: cities, urban sprawls.

I pose that cities are living organisms subject to biological examination and a myriad of cross disciplinary applications. Some scientists raise objections to the vocabulary I am using and interpret my argument as rhetorical; “the word ‘organism’ carries too much baggage. A city should be called a living system.” I understand where this objection comes from and would like to avoid arguments with those who adhere to “baggage,” but accuracy cannot be forsaken for tranquility. Both terms “living system” and “organism” are accurate.

2C. Seeing is believing:

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To conceptualize cities as alive, observe their entirety.

TOKYO

MONTREAL

LAS VEGAS

CHICAGO

LONDON

SAO PAULO

In the above pictures we see the sprawling urban organism for what it is; the physical manifestation of human civilization. I could use pictures of any city as they are all visible at night and from space. Perhaps you have already seen similar photos or you’ve found yourself glued to the window on an airplane. To say these images and observations are interesting is an understatement. They are captivating .

Observations of urban sprawls remind us that Nature is repetitive. Some things observed zooming in bear resemblance to things observed zooming out. For instance, cities look like microorganisms. We may criticize human civilization by saying we humans are a virus. Perhaps there is truth in this observation. When we take away the negative value judgment, is there something to learn from the way civilization operates as a living organism? Instead of denying, rejecting, or challenging our nature because we associate negative emotions with viruses, perhaps we can see civilization for what it actually is; an organism with a purpose no better or worse than any other.

2D. Conscious removal:

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It is important that one consciously attempt to set aside their identity when pondering the urban organism. Forget what you know and how you feel about “the world.” Pretend you’re looking into a microscope or at a different planet. What then? If NASA showed us photos of a planet emitting light visible from space, how would we go about understanding what we saw?

To assess human civilization or labor to understand our role on the planet, human civilization must remain connected to its evolutionary and biological history. Human nature and nature are the same. Thus, “cities are living organisms” is not rhetorical, but an observation of human existence and purpose.

3. A ROSE SEED:

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Ultimately physics, chemistry, biology, and evolutionary theory describe the same thing (physical reality) in different ways. I combine these perspectives to create a lens from which to view life on this planet. In many ways, we can liken life on Earth to a rose seed. If we knew nothing of roses or plants, and someone placed a rose seed in our hand, what would we guess about the seed? How could we understand what can come of that seed given time and circumstance? In a human-centric way, I suggest that civilization is coded in the “DNA” of Earth just as petal color is coded in the DNA of a rose seed.

While life and physical realty appear to be of a random nature, this is hardly so. The entire Universe is subject to physical laws. The word random is a useful way to describe something that is extremely complex but in truth nothing is random. If something is “random,” this supposes that there is no physical explanation for its existence. The truth is, if we had all of the facts we could explain and predict everything. At the same time, we must acknowledge the limitation of the human brain. While the facts exist, they cannot be measured by people because there are infinite variables relative to the human brain at any given moment. The word random is less a reflection of reality and more an acknowledgement of cognitive limitation.

I meet a lot of people who have a problem with this idea, “So you don’t believe in free will?” My answer, “I believe in experienced free will. That is all my brain needs.” In reality I know that everything that has happened can be explained and everything that will happen can be predicted if I have all the facts, as some may need to hear it, if I had the mind of “God.”

The idea that choice does not exist is not news. Literature pertaining to Life History Theory represents an already established base within biology where it has been demonstrated that genetic and environmental circumstances set the stage for who we will be. The implication is that our future depends on the past. As it should! If not, we would be no different from something that is random; without explanation.

This relates to cities in that they are natural biological phenomenon, not random combinations of human circumstances. Cities are part of the “DNA” of life on this planet. Thus there exists the potential to biologically analyze them as we do other organisms and systems. In the example of a rose seed, while we cannot guarantee the seed in our hand will become a flowering plant, general knowledge of these plants is of great utility to gardeners. An understanding of something’s nature helps us explain its past, understand its present and prepare for its future.

4. LIVING CITIES

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Recall the beginning of this paper, “what follows is premature.” Discussing the urban organism using a biological language is difficult territory because few have been here before. What follows is a preliminary discussion of specific parts of city physiology, life cycle, and behavior. The objective of this section is to create a lens from which to observe the planet and focus on specific regions.

4A. Growth:

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The fact that cities grow is clear. Some of the best observations of growth are provided by satellite images through time like these of Las Vegas and Cairo:

Figure 2: Las Vegas 1973 and 2000

Figure 3: Cairo 1965 and 1998

These are just two cities in a world experiencing explosive urban growth. Cities exhibit a radiating growth pattern strikingly similar to growth patterns observed in fungi:

Some questions of particular interest: which cities are growing? How are they growing (i.e. proportional growth)? For example, Perth, Australia and Philadelphia, USA are growing differently. Perth is a young, booming city, the dominant city of its respective region (Western Australia). Perth has one of the highest proportional growth rates in the developed world. The benefits of regional dominance and how such dominance effects proportional growth becomes clear when we compare Perth with Philadelphia, an older city within a dense mega-city system. A great deal of Philadelphia’s economic and cultural growth/decay is influenced by its recessive role in a crowded system. The image below is testament to the different environments these cities inhabit.

Another feature of growth is a cyclical or wave pattern through which development and economic resurgence occur; cities boom and bust. Waves of urban growth are reminiscent of the rings of growth in trees. Tree rings reflect seasonal growth patterns. Because metropolitan sprawl growth radiates outwards, rings representative of periodic growth can be measured. The size of these rings or magnitude of economic change depends upon the city’s developmental age. Young cities experience high proportional growth while older cities are slow at accommodating technological innovation, thus grow more slowly. In many ways the waves of growth experienced throughout a city’s life can be likened to a set of waves at the beach. A set of waves will progressively build up to the peak wave which will be followed by progressively smaller waves.

While not consciously related to biology, the Russian economist, Nikolai Kondratiev, treated the subject of waves of growth when he proposed the theory that western capitalist economies have long term (50-60 years) cycles of boom followed by depression. These are known as Kondratiev Waves or K-waves. Many economists liken the four distinct stages of a K-wave to the climatic characteristics of the four seasons; winter, spring, summer and fall.

Figure 6: K-waves

There are points of fundamental disagreement among economists about the exact nature of K-waves. Despite this, I included this topic to draw attention to the way economics parallel biology. I am excited that the field of economics can compensate for the subjective shortcomings of biology. Theory, quantitative research and literature in the field of economics offer valuable insight into the biology of cities.

4B. Composition:

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Water is fundamental to city life. The impact of this element is best illustrated by city growth rates experienced in the typically arid Southwestern United States in the last 100 years. Engineering projects facilitated the entrapment of water and these cities have experienced explosive growth:

While water is a fundamental component of all cities, electricity has enabled cities to transform into unrecognizable images of their previous forms. Although not a part of their early history, without electricity today, most cities surely could not survive.

Figure 7: Earth Lights at Night

This photo had a profound impact on me. Politics, environmental concern, conflict, emotion aside, the picture exemplifies a human purpose where no one person or nation is in control but one in which we are all involved.

Water and electricity are just two parts of city composition. From vehicular superhighways to information superhighways, airports to sea ports, skyscrapers to stadiums each part of a city serves a purpose in the same way organs, cells, and nutrients enable our bodies to function. For the purposes of this paper, I urge you to begin relating parts of cities to parts of a living organism.

4C. Structure:

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In terms of a city layout, cities are not always the same though they may appear this way to the untrained eye. There is a spectrum of city structure with two distinct ends that coincide with the distinct types of countries of the world: developed and developing or first and third world. This spectrum is on display in Africa.

As a self contained unit, Johannesburg, South Africa boasts impressive infrastructure. As a metropolitan area, Johannesburg exhibits many smaller cities uniformly surrounding a large central city. Imagine a drop of water landing on a table and droplets splashing away from the impact area. This is what Johannesburg metropolitan area looks like and this is a common dispersion pattern among western cities, especially New World western cities in North America, Australia, and Africa. The same infectious dispersion pattern can also be observed in Northern Africa, in countries close to Europe.

Outside of the extreme north and south of Africa however, cities show random patterns. Most large cities appear as single, large blobs with little to no surrounding city network.

Figure 9: African lights at night (left, colors inverted) and African population density (right). Viewed together, these maps display the difference between cities in the extreme north and south of Africa and central African cities. In Nigeria (central-west), Africa’s most densely populated country, illuminated cities are spread thin and networks are vague. Meanwhile, Johannesburg (the largest collection of lights in Southern Africa) is an example of the organized and potent nature of western cities. While on the population density map greater Johannesburg metropolitan area is a series of unexceptional dots, on the African lights at night map, it is one of the brightest areas of the continent.

Another difference between first and third world cities is the pattern of fading they exhibit. Fading refers to the gradual decline of urban development observed in satellite pictures where lights are brightest (at night) or land is grayest (by day) in the centre and fades outwards. In the image below, Lagos, Nigeria shows some fading on the level of the central city, or blob, but in terms of the metropolitan area, development abruptly ends. This is not the case with western cities like Philadelphia and New York.

Figure 10: Lagos displays little fading and the surrounding city network is very small (also see Figure 1, Sao Paulo).

Figure 11: Philadelphia (left) and New York (right) show extensive fading and city networks. These two large cities are 78 miles (126km) from one another. For Philadelphia and New York, fading is made possible by the network of smaller cities surrounding the center and suburbs, which are a mix of urban and rural forms. As one’s eye moves away from the center of the city, the metropolitan area gradually fades away. It makes sense that fading would not be observed elsewhere in Africa, as suburbs are indicative of a middle class, which most central African nations have yet to establish.

Finally, in this satellite photo of El Paso (USA & Mexico) we see two different sorts of cities in one. The western city (or first-world city) to the north, and the third world city to the south.

4D. Age, Social network, and social role:

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Cities are born. In the same way it is difficult to pinpoint the moment when human life begins, it is likewise difficult to pinpoint the exact moment a city is born. Officially recognized foundation dates are good birth dates because the importance of age lies in how old a city is relative to others.

Cities form relationships, belong to social networks, and hold positions of status within networks (social roles). A relationship is a pattern of chemical exchange between two cities. I use the word “chemical” because this term includes physical, mental and electronic exchange between cities. A network is the net flow and pattern of chemical exchange within a specific region. Metropolitan areas, states, countries, continents, and oceans constitute non-independent but definitive networks. Social role is the chemical composition of a city as a result of net chemical exchanges taking place in its network. In many ways the social role of a city is its charge as a result of chemical exchange.

On a more microscale level, the relative age, structure, dispersion pattern and social role of a city is a function of government legislation. From this view, it is inevitable that one confront the difficult connection between city-as-organism to what we normally view as a separate human nature (i.e. the world of government and politics); However, at the end of the day, we are the constructors of the city. Whether we are conscious actors of our ultimate influence or not, human action and human beings are the building blocks of cities just a micro-parts in our bodies allow the greater whole to function.

To demonstrate the power of legislation and even make a case for free markets, I pose the following question: Which cities are more robust? Ask this question of states that are either capital dominant (their capital city is the largest city in the state) or capital recessive (the capital city is not the largest city). There are marked developmental differences (in the long term) between these two structures.

First the Numbers: I've chosen three states from each camp. In terms of notable cities and population, do you spot a trend?

Visually represented: Have a look at the same six states' population densities. In the coloured maps, red represents high population density. In the black and white map of Western Australia, Perth metropolitan area (the only metropolitan area in the state) is circled in red. Capital recessive states demonstrate multiple major metropolitan areas. Conclusion: The economic development of a state is more strongly influenced by the physical structure of government administration than by its own natural resources. In other words, the "Invisible Hand of the Economy" is restricted in capital dominant states and other incentives and objectives take precedence.

Capital dominance in Australia: Australia is a country of capital dominant states. Of Australia's 5 largest cities, ALL are state capitals exhibiting some of the most extreme examples of capital dominance (aka City Primacy) in the world.
Considering the large territories each Australian state encompasses (especially Queensland and Western Australia) capital dominance is a serious limitation to the economic growth of Australia in the long term. It is a trend that should be actively reversed. One solution is to relocate the capital. While dominant cities cannot be moved, centres of government administration can and have been in the past. The first Australian state to relocate its capital will see tremendous economic benefit.

4E Generation:

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The notion of generation is a helpful tool for conceptualizing the history, current state and forecast of a city because like any other organism, cities are subject to the phrase: the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree. For instance, consider Rome, London, and New York as different generations of a lineage. While Rome was not the exclusive root of influence in London, and London was not the only influence to New York, the relationships between these cities had such a profound effect on the development of each prodigious city that cultural and structural similarities are comparable to the similarities between a parent and child. Like family legacies, all three cities represent or have represented epicenters of an empire that has moved westward through time. The destination and direction of movement has correlated positively with the magnitude of relationship.

The notion of legacy does not end with New York City. In terms of forecasting the post-New York City (aka: Northeast Megalopolis) epicenter, New York’s strongest relationships are the key indicators of developmental direction. As I see it, Los Angeles, and California as a whole are the primary contenders in light of the following:
a. Contemporary population trends in the United States show the center of population persistently shifting southwest:

b. The southwest (aka the Sun Belt) is experiencing explosive population growth while the northeast (aka the Rust Belt) has seen considerable decay and stabilization.

Figure 13

c. At 150 years of age, the geographical distribution of Los Angeles metropolitan area is 4,850 square miles with a population of about 13 million people. This is extraordinary considering that New York metro at roughly the same age (in 1850) had a population of about 700,000 people. Even in comparisons that do not take into account relative age, today Los Angeles and New York City show signs of an increasingly close competition (Figure 14).

Table 2: Los Angeles and New York, a comparative glimpse (Source for Columns 1-5: July 1, 2006 US Census Bureau estimates)
d. California is a dominant entity in the Pacific Rim, an area also experiencing considerable growth.
e. On a cultural level (largely as a result of the film industry) California has a separate, independent and favorable global status relative to the United States as a whole. This may serve as a stabilizing variable for this particular region should challenges to American dominance intensify.

In addition to the strengths of California and Los Angeles, the northeast Megalopolis has one important weakness: status. As with human individuals, status is a blessing and a curse. The attacks of September 11, 2001 reflect that the northeast corridor (New York and Washington, DC predominantly) is the focal point of anti-western frustration. Drawing again from the lineage of cities, Rome, London, and New York, history suggests that further instability in the region is likely.

While the prediction of Los Angeles as dominant over New York might be a foreign idea, history also shows us that surprises are likely, profound, and sudden. I hope for a smooth transition from New York to Los Angeles, but it is naive not to qualify that the rise of Los Angeles, as with the rise of New York, London, and Rome, requires the fall of a predecessor. It is important to note that Rome and London are alive and well. These cities did not die. Instead, they were dealt blows which stalled growth. Meanwhile, younger cities of close relation, continued to boom.

4F. Phases of life:

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The concept of generation relative to humans is helpful as long we realize its limitations. For cities there are only perceived generations. Older cities do not necessarily become elderly and functionally fade away. Instead, what we relate to human generations are the life stages of a single, growing, global organism.

In the growth section, I compared and highlighted the differing growth patterns of Philadelphia and Perth. Even when relative time is taken into consideration and one compares the young, dominant, booming Philadelphia of the 18th century with contemporary Perth, differences abound. Due to technological advancement, cities exhibit extreme generation gaps. Perth is physically much larger than Philadelphia was at the same age.

Not only do cities increase in size across generations, but the rate of growth also accelerates. Cities are growing larger, faster. This undermines the universal utility of common models of generation, as offspring normally resemble their parents in terms of size and growth.

Globally, from the world’s first city to present day, the life of cities resemble that of fungi: Although points of focus relocate, the collective whole continues to spread. As it spreads, growth capabilities are enhanced by the existing foundation thus, the observation of an accelerated growth rate.

Across generations, or the phases of the urban organism’s life, the physical size and population of focal cities increase by a certain magnitude. Unfortunately, I cannot yet offer a basic of mathematical equation for magnitude of generational change. Due to the size and complexity of the issue, such precise measurements may not be possible. Should one exist, I suspect the raw data have already been collected via economic research.

4G Health Communication:

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Economics are the mode of communication between cities and also a reflection of a city’s health. When we measure economic activity, we are measuring communication, circulation and ultimately growth within and between cities.

This observation helped me to recognize how important expertise in the field of economics is to the application of my ideas in a professional setting such as government, education, investment, or business development. While biological philosophy is interesting, economics offer a methodology through which the profile of a city, its relationships, and its network can be compiled, measured and used. Thus, theories can be tested and ideas transfer into the “real world.” I believe a perspective that integrates biology and economics is invaluable to any industry that benefits from the ability to forecast, anticipate and quickly adapt to future trends.

4H. Summary:

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The above definitions and concepts are admittedly difficult to study. For instance, how do we measure a relationship between cities? What is the stuff of a relationship? A measurement of the origin and destination of every e-mail sent and phone call made for a single day would create a good picture of relationships between cities. However, that is one variable and measuring such variables might constitute an insurmountable task.

How one intends to use information about cities determines the required degree of precision. My intention is to create a lens from which to view the world. Most of these concepts and questions warrant chapters, perhaps books, unto themselves. At this early stage, superimposing onto cities concepts that are normally reserved for familiar organisms will direct our understanding toward the development of a methodology that allows us to focus on an area of the world that I find particularly interesting: The Indian Ocean.

5. USING OUR LENS

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I have described cities as part of a single, global, growing organism comparable to fungi. Even earlier, I discussed life generally and the fact that every organism has a purpose. With that in mind, and knowing what we know about cities, what exactly are they doing? What is the purpose of cities?

To answer this question, it is important to establish a picture of the current state of cities. Before I begin, note that I am not an expert on all focal points of the planet. Awareness is connected to history. I am an American, born and raised in the Northeastern United States, educated in California and Western Australia. My focus is a result of this experience and the cities I discuss are not exclusive in their importance or potential. Furthermore, recall the importance of conscious removal which was discussed earlier. It is been difficult to communicate the following topics without confronting popular judgment values placed upon specific nations, governments, histories and humanity in general. As I discuss cities and focal points, I am focusing on individual cities and systems that are dominant in the same way a biologist focuses on the behavior of an alpha male and his kin. All members of networks and relationships are important, each with its own role, each at a different stage of development. I focus on the dominant entity in order to discuss the direction of economic development and ultimately focus on the Indian Ocean.

5A. Alpha City:

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Today the Northeast Corridor of the United States, stretching from Boston to Washington DC, is arguably one of the most dominant economic (New York City) and political (Washington DC) points of influence and power in the world. The figure below is testament to the region’s prowess.

Table 3: Courtesy of Economist Magazine, March 8, 2007. All four major focal cities of the Northeastern United States are present in the global top 15

Earlier in this paper I referred to several factors, the most convincing of which may be Figure 12, to suggest that the Southwestern United States, specifically Los Angeles, will replace New York in terms of cultural dominance nationally and globally. This signifies a westward movement that has been taking place for hundreds of years, even prior to the establishment of the United States. At different points in history, westward movement has been the subject of literature, art, and cultural importance.

Figure 15

Figure 16

Figure 17

Figure 18:

In its simplest form, what we observe as westward movement is city generation gap manifest. Mature Los Angeles will surpass New York because it is a younger city, in a network of young cities all more able and willing to benefit from technological advancement. Thus they will grow larger faster.

Not only does Los Angeles belong to the Southwest United States network, but also to the Pacific Rim. Both of these networks contain young, large cities exhibiting proportional growth patterns well beyond what is being experienced in the Northeast United States or trans-Atlantic region. While the trans-Atlantic region will not shrink into obscurity, I foresee the Pacific Rim emerging as an urban network of an entirely different scale. Adjusting for relative scale and magnitude attributed to generation gaps, comparable westward expansion and shifts of dominance have happened before and are in essence the nature of western civilization. The Northeastern United States surpassed Western Europe, Western Europe surpassed Rome, and the Roman Empire surpassed ancient Greece. Like following a path along a branch, city generations exhibit direction because ultimately, it is the purpose of the urban organism to grow and establish global networks. Comparative views of each empire show their fungi-like growth pattern and direction through time.

Figure 17: The radiating growth pattern and range of the urban organism can be measured when we follow the movement of western influence through time.

Western Civ Key: Contemporary map depicting conditional classification of western countries.
██ Developed countries of North America, Western Europe, Australia and New Zealand, (always considered Western) as well as newer and potential members of the EU such as Poland, Romania and Bulgaria.
██ Developed countries in east asia and Oceania, sometimes considered western
██ Latin America, settled by European countries (Portugal, Spain, and others) which have ties to European culture.
██ Eastern Europe, Balkans, Caucasus
██ Other states sometimes considered western
██ Not usually considered western

A final image of the “American empire” would bring us into contemporary times. While the official territory of the United States lies within fifty states and some territories, the range of the US system is much larger and the United States is clearly a contemporary focal point. This trend goes beyond governments and individuals. No group or organization can legitimately claim responsibility for the dominance of North American cities or prevent its eventual movement beyond America’s borders. In terms of a map of the American system we would use pervasive technology to measure system range. Just as coliseums, aqueducts, and amphitheatres spread throughout the Old World, perpetuated dominance, and remain signs of influence from previous empires, paramount technological advances that originated in North America (i.e. automobiles, airplanes, electricity, computers, and skyscrapers) enable and signify American influence. We may see these objects and technologies as universally human, but in time many will become dated and change. Their current forms will be associated with the time period, a period distinctly influenced by North America. In terms of technology, history shows us that the future is full of major surprises. If the range of the American system is equal to the extent of technology born within the system, perhaps the satellite photo of global city lights at night is a good reflection of range (See: Figure 7).

The size I am proposing is controversial. For example, an Australian friend of mine took offense and responded by saying, “I’m Australian, not American.” I stress that this is not a reflection of a specific government, nor am I suggesting that specific political entities control the world, though some may strive to or believe that they do. The word “America” is loaded with meaning. I use this word to highlight a physical location on Earth. Recall that colonial America was distinctly British, but this did not ensure that the colonists were loyal to the crown or part and privy to the power exercised in London. Nor did London’s influence mean that British colonies did not enjoy a sense of cultural and political independence. Politics aside, among cities, North American cities have significant global influence and the influence of this system is perpetuated by the technology it bore whether the people involved are conscious of it or not.

Generation gap and developmental direction are two significant components of cities because they offer us a glimpse into the future. If we understand the direction in which the urban organism is spreading we can compile a list of young growing cities that will likely compliment the existing system. Furthermore, a select few of these younger cities will become succeeding focal points. I have named Los Angeles as one of New York’s heirs. However, beyond Los Angeles, beyond California, beyond the United States, where is the next likely location of the western focal point?

5B. Australia

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As dominance shifts west in the United States and the Pacific Rim grows more established, I foresee Australia as one of the next globally dominant western states. In other words, Australia will be the recipient of “America’s Crown.” Quite often China is considered the favorite in terms of the future superpower of the world. However, I believe that due to cultural strengths, geographic size, a solid economic foundation, and the discounted importance of political loyalties, Australia will surprise most. Some specific reasons:

a. Separate systems:
a1. China is the favorite of projections, but note that the European and Asian systems are separate. Consider Tokyo (and Japan as a whole) as its own global focal point equal to New York. While the Chinese and American economies are currently exchanging and interacting, it is hard to foresee western dominance being completely absorbed into Asia. It is more likely the two will continue on complimentary trajectories.
a2. Many people attach a winner/loser paradigm to the China and USA interaction. However, this analogy discounts the ease in which the systems interact. The fact that this relationship is growing and complimentary supports what is likely the urban organism’s optimum growth and development objective: global/spherical range.
a3. Indeed China and Asia will be very important in the future. Recall that London was not the sole successor of Rome. I highlight Australia not to discount China, but to draw attention to a surprise in waiting.
b. The English speaking world is gaining influence.
c. It is more likely the next superpower will be a blend of Western and Asian cultures, less likely one or the other. Future focal points are usually blends of the powerful entities of the past (i.e. Los Angeles and the Southwestern United States in many ways embody a marriage between the Spanish and English empires), Australia has a culture of Asian and Western immigration and integration. Population trends suggest that most Australians will be genetically Eurasian in one hundred years.
d. Dominant states in their formative years are recipients of immigrants from the older dominant system. Like its predecessors, it is likely that economic and cultural trends in the United States will continue to move in a direction where society is becoming more stratefied and there exists a growing segment of the population that works harder while experiencing decreased or stagnant quality of life. In other words, the “American dream” will cease to be a possibility for these individuals. Thus, there will emerge groups of people who seek opportunity elsewhere. Australia is a likely recipient of a large quantity of these people due to its favorable reputation in the United States, the fact that awareness of Australia is growing, and the “Australian Dream” will begin to enter the mindset of the western world. Furthermore, American emigrants may feel more comfortable moving to Australia because of real and perceived cultural, historical and lingual similarities.
e. Population potential:
e1. People scoff at the idea of Australia becoming a dominant world power. I am sure the same laughs would have been heard in 18th century England if the same had been said of America. Part of the issue lies in Australia’s relatively small population. This however, does not say much about the future. For North American cities, technological innovation allowed explosive population growth far beyond what the founding fathers (whose conception of the future is reflected in the content of the American Constitution) would have foreseen. One example is New York City, once second tier to the dominant booming Philadelphia of the 18th century. New York became the American financial center and largest city in the country following the construction of the Eerie Canal. Similar examples exist in the Southwestern United States and their transformative effects have been discussed. Australia is a nation in need of technological innovation to increase water reserves. In fact, it may not be long until the Australian economy is forced to come up with solutions for a very severe national water shortage. Taking into consideration this need combined with Australia’s high level of education and young culture, this is also a likely place for the development of such technology . Young cities are innovative, and this has enabled rapid growth of record setting proportion.
e2. The movement of industry out of western cities and into the developing world has changed the nature of western cities dramatically. The population requirements that once determined city potency are shifting. Western cities in the future may boast relatively low population with high per capita quality of life. This would signify a further extreme to the trend of western privilege. Not only is industry out of sight, but highly skilled individuals, likely members of what is now known as the “leisure class,” will take advantage of technologies facilitating remote performance while living in cities that are comparatively luxurious in the global context. Again, referring to the Chinese comparison: Indeed the growth in China is impressive, but recall that the nature of economic development in China is akin to development experienced in western cities 100 years ago. Western cities will likely retain their sophistication and “head start.” I foresee an increase in the magnitude by which western cities are concentrated centers of the most skilled individuals on the planet.
f. Friends in high places: In their rebellious pride, Americans may not realise that 1776 was not the beginning of the end for the English Empire, but instead the beginning of a new chapter. Australia is part of the same story, part of one of the most powerful networks in the world.
g. Big neighbors: Australia’s population is 20 million. The population of Asia is about 3 billion. It is hard to foresee this population ratio remaining stable in the long term. Recall the idea of city generation gap and apply it to a variable that typically increases in magnitude across generations; growth and immigration. For example, the United States has absorbed about 20 million illegal immigrants in the last 15 years, a number far exceeding previous waves. Similar record breaking waves of immigration were experienced in the 19th century throughout the northeastern United States when Irish, German, and Italian immigrants flooded into the country. Through history, immigration waves across western civilization have increased in magnitude. It is possible that Australia, consensually or forcibly, will experience a similar wave from Asia of record setting proportions.
h. Young cities: Young cities are privy to cutting edge technological breakthroughs because they are the likely birthplace of such innovation. As a result, these same cities will grow larger faster. Furthermore, city growth depends on city network. A young city in a network of many older cities will experience a high rate of competition and grow less freely than a young city that is isolated or part of a network of young cities. Australia is home to some of the youngest cities and also the youngest city network in the world. In terms of innovation, growth, and power, Australia has been dealt a favorable hand.
i. Time: Probably the most important factor of this projection is time. No matter how quickly urban growth accelerates, relative to a human life, cities grow gradually. I doubt Australia, the world power, will emerge before 2100 . The peak of Australia’s status is not my focus. I have deliberately followed a westward trajectory from my birthplace in New Jersey to Western Australia to find the western frontier, where I can participate in the early rapid-growth phase of western cities.

Sydney is the likely Australian candidate to surpass Los Angeles. While this does not mean that today Sydney is solely influenced by Los Angeles, it does mean that by the time Sydney reaches its pinnacle life stage, the predominant influence of Los Angeles will be common knowledge in the same way it is common knowledge in Boston, New York, and Philadelphia that London has been one of the most influential European cities in the Northeastern United States. Thus, increased American influence in Australia will be a hallmark in coming years. This influence may well reach a magnitude where Australia is motivated to actively assert its independence and autonomy in the relationship just as was done in the American colonies in 1776.

5C. Earth's little secret:

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I have focused on Australia thus far to continue along a branch of urban-development. Australia is a system that will experience growth and technological innovation comparable to North America. While there are limitations to this projection due to Australia’s unique environment (political, environmental, and geographic) and generation gap, one aspect that will be strikingly similar is the importance of and developmental relationships between multiple coasts. I have thus far focused on the Pacific Rim, but now let us shift to Earth’s little secret, the Indian Ocean.

Already in Australia, the Indian Ocean facing state of Western Australia has grown into a national focal point. This surprised a nation that traditionally considered Perth to be boring, isolated, and backwards. Over the last 10-15 years, Australia has experienced an economic boom resulting in the emergence of Perth as the most expensive city in Australia (Real Estate Institute of Australia). Western Australia accounts for over 30% of export revenues, 12.3% of Australian GDP, its Gross State Product (GSP) continues to be high, and in June 2006 it ranked first in population growth at 2%. What is striking about these statistics is the fact that Western Australia only accounts for about 10% of Australia’s population.

Table 4: Australian GSP and GDP, courtesy of ACT Department of Treasury, Economics Branch.

Table 3 presents just a sample of plentiful data demonstrating Western Australia’s accelerating growth rate. Today Perth is competitive with east coast cities that were leaps and bounds ahead twenty years ago. From the perspective of cities, Perth’s trajectory makes sense as it is the only major city on the west coast of a booming nation. Perth experiences one of the lowest rates of competition in the world and rests upon an ocean of opportunity. These are the same circumstances that founded Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Sydney. As government officials in Western Australia plan for the future, it would be wise to consult historic economic data indicative of developmental trends experienced in 19th century California. For example, in what sectors did San Francisco experience the most growth in the mid 19th century and can we find equivalent sectors in today’s markets? Like other living organisms, cities undergo a set pattern of growth that is subject to the same gene/environment interaction our bodies underwent throughout the course of our development. For example, you may not be an exact copy of your parents, but compared to the rest of humanity, your parents are an excellent reference point relative to your physical development. For Perth, we can better shape projections when we consult the history of similar cities. Western Australia bears a striking resemblance to young California much in the same way I have suggested that Australia resembles a younger America. Both west coast states were established in isolation from the rest of their respective countries. Western Australia is a beautiful, untouched, and booming state. However historic Australian stereotypes rarely refer to these positive aspects. In recent times, attitudes towards the state have changed for the positive in light of media headline after headline highlighting an emerging economic powerhouse. California received similar national treatment in the early 1800s. Before the 1849 gold rush, California was an unorganized frontier, not taken very seriously by the more established, Philadelphia and Boston centered east coast. This changed in the mid 19th century with the discovery of gold and subsequent appearance of the west coast’s first large city; San Francisco. Today California is the most populous US state, experiencing some of the highest population growth rates. On its own, California is one of the largest economies in the world. It was not just mineral wealth that brought California to this place, although mineral discovery did create a solid foundation. California’s secret to success is strategic location, innovation and the establishment of trans-Pacific relationships. Specifically, San Francisco formed relationships throughout the Pacific Ocean region. These were relationships that offered opportunities east coast American cities could not touch and the same sort of international opportunities that allowed the east coast to establish itself. Future development in Perth that allows the economy to mature into an independent and autonomous national and global force will revolve around trans-Indian relationships.

5D. Summary:

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Cities are the focal points of a global organism. You do not need to agree with the trajectory I have used to arrive at the Indian Ocean in order to recognize that it is a frontier of globalisation. The proposed growth and expansion of western civilization into this region is congruent with the historical development of globalisation. The nature of the urban organism is to grow until there is adequate distribution of cities in a specified region. Taken globally, when we survey the Indian Ocean, there emerge just a handful of western cities, all young and booming. While the Indian Ocean is not primitive, relative to the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, economic development is juvenile. Keeping in mind the accelerating rate of development that comes with city generation gap, it is likely the Indian Ocean will experience even more rapid development than did the Pacific Ocean. In other words, this area will develop larger, faster as a result of unforeseen innovation and an already extensive global base of development.

6. A NEW WORLD

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When we compare cities of today with cities from the past we are comparing individuals of the same species. Australia resembles North America because Australian and North American cities are of the same group: New-world western cities of first world status. Keeping this group of cities in mind and the branch of cities I have tracked west from Europe (Rome and London) to North America (New York and Los Angeles) to Australia (Sydney and Perth), let us cross the Indian Ocean to South Africa, one of the youngest members of this group.

Historically, western civilisation has been in South Africa for hundreds of years. However, age in years does not always correlate with systemic maturity. In what is arguably the focal point of the west, the United States, South Africa remains largely out of cultural awareness. Common associations with South Africa have a lopsided focus on negative issues such as white emigration, political instability, crime, poverty and disease. Such issues are part of reality, but when systemic age is taken into consideration they are not exceptional. It is not uncommon for the urban organism to experience uncertain early growth. A good example is North America which took over 500 years to reach systemic maturity. One reason for North America’s slow initial growth in the first 100 years between Columbus’s first voyage in 1492 and the 1600s is that Europe was not at a level of economic maturity capable of thoroughly exploring North America until the 16th century. In other words, there were not many people who were willing and able to finance or make the journey.

To understand what I mean by urban economic maturity, consider a bowl of pears and the way mold will spread throughout the bowl. Before a colony of mold will spread to a second pear, the initial pear will have to possess some critical mass of mold. This critical mass signifies first, a necessity for more resources, and second, the capability to facilitate mold proliferation

Figure 19: Mold proliferation

Cities spread in the same way. For North America it was not until a small group of Spanish explorers injected huge quantities of North American gold into European economies that Europe was stimulated and disrupted enough to warrant larger scale exploration and settlement of the New World. The economic situation of the parent system is vitally important to city development. Perhaps equally important is human competition. In North America, and the world over, city growth has correlated negatively with conflict between indigenous populations and westerners. For example, South Africa was settled prior to Australia, but it is likely that Australia will mature faster due to the relative ease settlers had in colonising the sparsely populated land. Rapid maturation has hardly been the case in Africa, where the indigenous population is proportionally large, conflict remains a major issue, and a pacifist moral shift throughout western culture has rendered traditionally brutal methods of settlement taboo in South Africa. Thus, functionally the region remains relatively young.

6A. Human competition and urban growth:

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The birth of a city marks the death of traditional human lifestyles that previously existed in the city’s path. There are many examples globally where cities have laid waste to traditional lifestyles. More often than not this issue is discussed in the context of colonialism. Biological perspectives on the subject have been avoided as the idea of “survival of the fittest” is associated with elitist value judgments. It is time to revisit the biological truth of human conflict.

Genetically, all humans are of the same species. However, from the perspective of scientific measurement (i.e. resource consumption, geographic range through life, population density) this is one of the only similarities between westerners and indigenous people. Western lifestyles (which admittedly originate from traditional lifestyles) and traditional lifestyles (i.e. hunter gatherer) have diverged into completely different human experiences. In the majority of cases, perhaps all cases, cities and traditional forms of human life are mutually exclusive. It is not that people belonging to traditional societies are inherently incapable of joining urban systems but that those who adhere to traditional lifestyles, who resist integration, or who cannot integrate experience a low measure of health when they exist within the urban organism’s sphere of influence. Thusl they experience a lower measure of survivability. Considering the growth pattern, range and nature of the urban organism, staying out of its sphere of influence is virtually impossible. This begs the question: Is there such a thing as a human being who lives independent of the urban organism? The legitimacy of this question speaks volumes about the strength of contemporary selection forces on human beings.

The urban organism is so universally human that even those who believe they are anti-globalisation, anti-west, or anti-colonisation cannot avoid participation in the system as the foundation of their rhetoric often rests upon western education systems and the communication of their message is facilitated by western technology.

In terms of the big-picture competition between cities and hunter-gatherer formations, cities are dominant. Intrusive inevitability is not just a human phenomenon. Other organisms that benefit from and coexist with cities like some types of plants, small mammals, birds, insects, fish, amphibians and organisms that thrive in foreign environments exhibit the same intrusive patterns, often completely eradicating native species.

Many biologists cite intrusive organisms and the instability their presence creates to suggest that human civilisation functionally represents a mass extinction. In terms of extinction rates, which appear to be elevated, this is probably true. However, there is one major difference between contemporary changes and previous mass extinctions: Life in general (i.e. biomass) has not necessarily decreased. Instead, those organisms going extinct have been replaced by the booming populations of a select few species. This is an important distinction between human civilisation and mass extinctions. To assume that a group of one million individuals representing ten species is more valuable than a group of one million individuals representing two species is in itself a value judgment that goes beyond biological observation. Indeed, there are benefits to diversity, but if there is such a thing as mass extinction so too there can be mass origination and benefits to large populations.

To exemplify the long term benefits of reduced diversity consider a sapling that has twenty branches. With time the original branches may reduce to five. Relative to the original branches, diversity is reduced. However, of the five remaining branches, twenty new branches have emerged from each. While diversity of the original branches remains low, these surviving branches facilitate levels of diversity that did not previously exist. This is and always has been the process and nature of life.

Figure 20: Of the original branches on the sapling, several will break off. Yet those that remain enable a larger number of branches given time.

6B. A great divide

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From a biological perspective, the human conflict that is fundamental to cities, is evolution in motion. Remember that there are no value judgments in evolution when one discusses those who survive and those who perish through time. If I said that a grandparent will likely die before their grandchild, I am observing specific variables and making a prediction, nothing more. I draw the comparison between an older and younger person because the indigenous way of life is ancient and part of all of our histories. Meanwhile, the western form of life is recent, rapid, non-universal, innovative, and intrusive.

“Great divide” and “evolution in motion” are not just rhetorical phrases. The shift of human-lifestyle formation from hunter-gather tribes into urban sprawls suggests that a human speciation event is under way. Genetically, this has yet to manifest. Yet on all other levels this is a valid observation. Given adequate time, the western lifestyle will select for a different human form. Even if civilisation as we know it collapses today, surviving human beings will emerge slightly changed as a result of net global change and the influence of cultural legacies that survive. If we can agree that the average human being is slightly changed, then we have acknowledged an observation of human evolution and perhaps gained some insight into the processes that shaped our species.

As we look into the past and compare ourselves with our closest surviving relative, the chimpanzee, a perspective that takes into account contemporary human change and the conflict it creates can offer insight into the selection forces that created such a great divide between humans and chimpanzees. While the genetic differences between humans and chimpanzees are less than 5%, our different forms and lives are obvious. In other words, while genetics are an important component to any discussion about a speciation event, it’s important to note that other, equally important changes (perhaps fundamental to genetic change) have already manifested in humans.

6C. The "New World":

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When we consider the fundamental nature of human conflict and change we gain a perspective from which to approach the controversial and tragic issues effecting young systems and indigenous groups around the world. With regard to South Africa specifically, traditional lifestyles are being selected against. With time, highly unstable processes which mark the introduction of the urban organism, like disease, war, and integration will run their course and stabilise. While stabilisation does not equate to the eradication of these problems, many of the issues that inspire pessimistic economic forecasts will be replaced by issues characteristic of a more mature, developed western system. Indeed today South Africa is risky, future wars may gestate, and the government is young, but this is characteristic of a fledgling system. As with many other organisms, the highest risks occur throughout early developmental stages.

Even with risk taken into consideration, I foresee an optimistic economic future in South Africa. Furthermore, I project that the improved economic conditions that take root in South Africa will spread north throughout Sub Sahara Africa. Opinions that suppose otherwise discount the uncertainty that existed in what are now model economies.

I deliberately use the words “New World” in the title of this chapter to liken Africa to the North America of hundreds of years ago. From its inception in the 15th century to the late 19th century, uncertainty comparable to that currently existing in South Africa was a harsh reality in North America where the conflict between western and indigenous cultures was rife for hundreds of years. The farmer murders that occur today in South Africa are not unlike the brutal slayings of settlers of the “wild west,” many of whom were hijacked in their covered wagons and murdered on their journey westward. These hate crimes send a clear message into urban centers: “get out.” The intention is to spark fear, and indeed such acts do. However more clearly revealed is desperation. Traditional societies in Africa are experiencing the encroaching strain of the urban organism. For those who refuse to integrate, or even more frustrating, are not presented with the opportunities that faciliate integration, such acts of desperation reflect the effects of mortal stress.

Uncertainty in North America stretched beyond conflict between western and indigenous societies. Revolutionary War, Civil War, territorial expansion, poverty, disease, and murderous corruption consumed politics and culture in a region rarely associated with such topics today. Still, the urban organism experienced a pattern of accelerated growth which continues today. Furthermore, to conclude that North America is today free of these problems and without risk would be wrong. No place is without risk. However, depending on the age of the system, types and probability of risk change.

Violence is perhaps the most immediate and distressing issue in contemporary South Africa and it is unfortunate and often misguided. Holding individuals accountable for the encroachment of the urban organism does not deter its growth. Considering the mutual exclusivity demonstrated between western and indigenous groups, the two predominant solutions for indigenous individuals are successful integration or absolute isolation. Both of these solutions are complex and represent two opposite ends of the spectrum. Furthermore, most people who are suffering as a result of the urban organism fall somewhere in the middle between western and indigenous. We can posit solutions and the government will design legislation to assist indigenous peoples, but in terms of projecting an outcome, the indigenous African experience will likely be comparable to what has been experienced in more mature systems like North America and Australia. Specifically, indigenous groups will experience population decline (through disease, integration) and dispossession (geographic and political).

In my view, hindsight provided by more mature systems does not equate into an increased ability to control outcomes. Just as cities have a set pattern of growth, so too there is a set pattern of decline among indigenous organisms. While South Africa may solve in ten years problems North America took far longer to sort out, new problems will arise and the general theme and pattern of western invasion will remain intact; the western organism is inevitably intrusive.

6D. Population ratio:

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For systems like South Africa, economic health, potential and projection depend on the population ratio between westerners and indigenous individuals. For example, India, China, and Brazil are systems that were founded upon a large indigenous population and small western population. The consistency of this ratio through time shaped the structure of cities into what I described in section 4C Structure as blobs indicative of third world countries. Conversely in North America and Australia, while the initial population ratio also entailed a large indigenous population and small western population, the ratio shifted in time to favor westerners and this is also reflected in the structure of these cities (i.e. fading). Generally speaking, the status of a country/city as first or third world is related to the historical population ratio between westerners and indigenous individuals. Speaking from the perspective of cities, the urban organism will penetrate traditional systems strategically and inevitably however growth patterns will reflect environmental constraints.

This is a difficult trend to quantify because it is subject to many variables. Should we attempt to quantify population ratio it is important to acknowledge that due to technological segregation, population ratio does not translate into: 1 westerner = 1 indigenous individual. In terms of power and potency (i.e. environmental impact): 1 westerner > 1 indigenous individual. Even with this basic formula, the question remains: If integration is possible and many people lie somewhere in the middle of the spectrum of western-indigenous, who is western and who is not? I sincerely doubt a definitive answer exists.

Again, how we intend to use information determines the necessary degree of precision. I am using population ratio to highlight South Africa’s developmental direction. While to some it may appear that indigenous populations now control South Africa, what has started to become obvious throughout Africa is that racial equality does not translate into indigenous rule and harmony. The issue is far deeper than race. Placing power in the hands of those with indigenous genes has not necessarily resulted in an increased quality of life among individuals in traditional societies because the true divide among human beings concerns lifestyle, not race.

Westerners remain in power in South Africa. Their physical appearance as indigenous people helps to stabilise the system yet the scale remains tipped in favor of western civilisation, regardless of race. Evidence for the continued growth of western civilisation is written in satellite images of cities and data pertaining to city growth. New World western cities of first-world status continue to bloom throughout South Africa.

I often hear people citing the horrid living conditions throughout South Africa’s shanty towns to suggest that South Africa is collapsing into a third world country or suffering from impossible problems. I again refer to the experience of North America where immigrants and Native Americans lived in comparably difficult environments. For immigrants in particular, shanty towns, despite their high level of danger and pathology, represented the chance for a better life. Considering the conflict between westerners and indigenous people, shanty towns represent a desire on the part of indigenous people to participate in the urban system. I won’t pretend shanty towns offer a happy existence, but from the perspective of the city, the shanty towns are important sources of nutrients, nutrient reserves, and given time, perhaps the framework of a future satellite city center.

Finally, while westerners have an advantage, population ratio in South Africa is especially interesting because the almost even balance of power between western and traditional groups combined with a shift in moral values throughout the west has inspired the creation of an innovative form of democracy where indigenous people are incorporated into society at a very early stage in the country’s development. Again we can draw a comparison with North America where philosophical and political innovation (of a different sort) enabled a freer society in which technological innovation could flourish. For South Africa, because integration has been incorporated into the system structure at such an early developmental stage, the potential for success has significantly increased. While integration is a difficult issue, it is not insurmountable. From the perspective of cities, each human being can be a valuable resource, thus the city will grow toward maximum resource utilisation (i.e. high rate of proportional economic growth).

6E. Future

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I regard South Africa to be the youngest extension of a network of cities that combine robust growth with political and cultural global dominance. Put another way, I believe that South Africa will someday (well beyond my years) host a globally dominant focal city.

Figure 21: One branch of western civilization?

The image above traces the path along which imperial empires have existed and where I project they will exist in the future. Some of the reasons I used to suggest that Australia will grow into a major world leader also apply to South Africa. For example South Africa is part of the English speaking world, South African cities are very young, and South Africa’s membership in the British Commonwealth suggests that it has powerful relationships. With time, as South Africa’s economy grows so too will South African culture, prosperity, and lifestyle emerge into western awareness in the same way the United States emerged into European awareness, California emerged into American awareness, and Australia is emerging into western awareness. Today, and even more so in the future, the world will be economically ready for Africa. How? The Live Aid concerts held around the world in 2005, aimed at eradicating African poverty, reminded me of the difference between hope and reality with regard to poverty and economic development. The hope is that poverty can be eradicated. However, the shape of capitalism and western civilisation is hierarchical. In the wealthiest of states, people live in poverty, so eradicating poverty in its entirety is a worthy goal, but perhaps an eternal effort. In terms of reality, it is unlikely that geographical segregation of economic development and prosperity will persist in the future. On a cultural level, many of the factors that prohibited growth in Africa are changing in favor of development. From the perspective of the urban organism, Africa is another link in the world-chain, a necessary component for the growth of a global organism. While poverty may persist, its compartmental distribution will change.

6F. Summary: The Indian Rim

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The Indian Ocean is a specific region of the planet where I observe young cities, potential and juvenile city networks and social roles that will develop through time to create emerging markets and innovative economic forces that will compliment a global network of cities. I have focused on hypothetical trajectories and base such predictions on my scientific and professional experience. I recognize the limitations of my knowledge and emphasize that I am not married to the ideas I have put forward. I want to learn and become educated about the topics discussed in this paper. If I have demonstrated gross ignorance, I want to know where it is that my knowledge can expand and direct theories about the urban organism and the Indian Ocean towards accuracy.

Whether the nations I have discussed host globally dominant cities in the future or not they are already privileged focal points in the Indian Ocean region. No matter how you arrive at this part of the world, it is reasonable to consider it a frontier of globalisation. Thus I would like to move into the field of economics and find a suitable avenue to participate in forming, stimulating, and promoting trans-Indian relationships.

While I see the potential of the region, the limitations of my knowledge and desire to test and apply specific theories motivated this paper. Some questions of particular interest:

What cities are dominant in the region?
To what extent is the Indian Ocean globalised (i.e. what developmental stage)? How do we measure globalisation?
How can Trans-Indian awareness be facilitated and promoted among governments and businesses of the region?
What nations are willing and able to join a “Trans-Indian Union”?
What sectors facilitate networks and relationships (i.e. government, business, academic)? How do sectors interact to facilitate networks and relationships?
What markets will be particularly important in the next 50 years?
How can the trends detailed in this paper be translated into Global Macro-investing?
What is the status of the African Union? Between the South African government and the African Union, which is dominant? Which is likely to be dominant in the future?

The relationship between South Africa (Johannesburg, Cape Town, and Durban) and Australia (Perth, Adelaide, and Darwin) is a subject of particular interest as I regard this to be the primary ingredient of a regional social network. Additionally I would like to assess the roles of Mumbai, Dubai, Nairobi, Bangkok, Singapore, and Kuala Lumpur.

Figure 22: Indian Ocean and cities likely to be dominant in the region

In conclusion, I realize that in order to explore my questions and interests and determine how I can participate in this vast process I need to develop the skills, knowledge, and tools of an economist. Furthermore, I believe a unique combination of evolutionary and economic perspectives will enable valuable contributions to cities and the field of economics.

7. THE FATE OF THE URBAN ORGANISM

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The complete life cycle and purpose of the urban organism is one of the most important parts of this paper. I glazed over the subject when I suggested that the purpose of the urban organism is the creation of a global network of cities. This is only part of the story. To create a complete biological picture of any organism one must consider its entire life.

To understand what I mean by “purpose,” consider the purpose of familiar organisms. This is not necessarily a complex subject. In general, the purpose of every living organism is to survive and assist in the spread of life (directly or indirectly).

When we examine global networks of cities we’re not necessarily getting at the urban organism’s purpose. Instead, an understanding of global networks of cities helps us to understand the urban organism’s physiology. Now that we can think about the urban organism’s body, skeleton, and growth objective, let’s move on to the question; what is this body for? Refer to your own body. Why do our bodies mature and grow? Our bodies mature and grow to facilitate reproduction.

7A. Purpose:

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Are cities facilitating reproduction? To answer this question, start with an exercise that will exemplify the short period of time our civilization has existed on the planet. In this exercise the age of the Earth (~4.5 billion years) is represented by one hypothetical year. In other words 1 hypothetical year equals 4.5 billion years. This results in a hypothetical year where one minute is roughly equal to 8,500 years. Now, pretend you can sit back for a year and watch the planet from its birth to today. Considering the fact that the first large cities visible from space did not appear until 700 BC (Rome was established in 753 BC) it would not be until December 31 at 11:59:40 pm that you might start to notice cities. Honestly, 700 BC is conservative. The traits of cities that have been the focus of this paper like exponential growth, the ability to emit light at night, and global networks would not occur until the final two seconds of the year. Figure 23 is testament to the brief nature of this current civilization.

Figure 23: World Population in the last 12,000 years. In the hypothetical year exercise described above, one second equals 167 years.

An aspect of civilisation that is particularly relevant to a discussion about the fate of the urban organism is the fact that in the last two seconds of the hypothetical year (in addition to cities blooming across Earth’s surface) the planet begins to emit spores (satellites and rockets) at an accelerating rate. These spores both orbit the planet and shoot off into space. Of all the biological parallels I have drawn in this paper, herein lies the most profound.

The purpose of the urban organism is to facilitate the spread of life off of the planet and throughout the Universe. While the idea of human beings establishing colonies on other planets is a popular image, this is not the sort of life spreading I am suggesting. Instead, I see the “seed of life” as residing in something far less obvious; the metallic satellites and probes we have already sent and will continue to send into space may hold within their molecular and atomic parts a system of motion, pattern, or vibration that not only holds Earth’s signature but also the elemental chain reaction that created life as we commonly know it on Earth.

At the beginning of this paper, I redefined life. I broke down the barrier between things traditionally considered living and non-living and determined that life is any system in motion. I furthermore dismissed the notion of randomness and equated life in general to a rose seed. In other words, I suggested that human civilization is coded in the DNA of the seed of life. Such fundamental arguments are important because I am suggesting that the seed of life could be a metal, or in other words, a rock. While we commonly view life in the same way Wikipedia.com has defined it, life may in fact be coded in the vibration of physical matter. Inherent to everything from Earth is its signature. Given billions of years, perhaps a crashed satellite (or piece of rock from what was once Earth when our planet is long gone) on a distant planet (with the extremely rare and necessary conditions) will create a chain of events that result in the appearance of mobile organisms. Perhaps given enough time, that satellite will create a chain of events ultimately producing humanoid organisms living in rapidly expanding cities.

The previous paragraph can be difficult to believe or take on board. However, consider your own life; a statistically insignificant miracle. In his entire life, it is likely your father produced billions and billions of sperm. Of those billions, how many children did he have? The ratio of sperm produced versus sperm that produced children would lead any scientist to determine that the probability of a sperm becoming a human being is impossible. In other words, sperm are waste products. Yet, it is from one in a billion tiny sperm that life is consistently produced. I mention this example to highlight the fact that life in itself is founded upon the “impossible.” While the scientific method and statistics are important parts of science, we must also acknowledge the limitations of such methods when held up against realty. Simply put, A fungi like organism continues to rapidly expand across Earth’s surface and it is continuously emitting spores into space; you be the judge.

7B Fate

2008-05-18T20:15:00.002+08:00

If the purpose of the urban organism is to spread life off of our planet, what does that mean for us? The idea of human beings colonising other worlds is popular because it embodies the dream that we will survive even if Earth becomes inhospitable. This is one possibility for human beings, however it should be noted that human beings exist on our planet as a result of 4.5 billion years of history. There is a complex foundation that supports our existence on Earth. To move a high level organism without a similar foundation would require extensive support from Earth. This is much like western colonies in the New World. North American and Australian colonies required extensive support from Europe. Much like a human individual, while many of us will work to extend our health and live long prosperous lives, eventually we will succumb to time. So too is the fate of our civilization. Perhaps, the hope embodied in our extraterrestrial dreams will manifest in a much longer term process. While I believe the dream of perpetuating human life can be achieved with the seed of life, it will not necessarily occur in the manner we normally imagine. In other words we will not be there to see it, and the future humanoids will not have any memory of their origins. It is my belief that while the details of our existence, who we are, what we did, etc may be lost, the shapes, the desires, the dreams of humanoid beings will live on.

Full version of "The Urban Organism" coming...

2008-04-08T09:01:00.001+08:00